The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded the UK’s economic growth forecast earlier this week, with predictions that the UK economy will contract by 0.3% rather than 0.6% as previously forecasted. However, this contraction still sees the UK settling into its position as the worst performing G7 economy this year.
Here you can see that the IMF predict 0.3% negative real GDP growth alongside a 6.8% inflation rate in the UK for 2023.
The rate of inflation is certainly heading in the right direction when compared to its rate of 9.1% last year. Nevertheless, this is still far higher than the Bank of England’s 2% target rate of inflation.
The above graph, taken from BBC News, using IMF data, shows UK growth forecasts in 2023 and 2024 in comparison with other G7 countries.
This graph clearly illustrates that the UK is facing a very different situation to its companions, acting as the only G7 nation with negative growth for 2023.
This said, it does also appear that we are on the right path, as despite predictions of a 0.3% contraction in GDP this year, the IMF also forecasts that we will move away from this shrinkage and into growth of 0.9% in 2024.
Given that the IMF has reduced how much they expect our economy to contract this year and increased the growth they predict us to experience next year, we can certainly see an increasing optimism in the UK’s economic outlook.
The Mini-Budget’s Aftermath
One of the reasons for the decline in the UK’s economic environment is the continued aftershocks of Kwarteng’s September mini-budget under Truss’ leadership.
“In the UK, investor concerns about the fiscal and inflation outlook after the announcement of large debt-financed tax cuts and fiscal measures to deal with high energy prices weighed heavily on market sentiment in late September. Amid high market volatility, the British pound depreciated abruptly, while yields on UK sovereign bonds rose sharply. The scale and speed of yield increases, especially at the long end of the curve, reportedly had a significant impact on levered positions held by UK institutional investors, particularly pension funds”
The fiscal policy proposed in the September mini-budget worked to counteract the Bank of England’s monetary policy. This is because Kwarteng proposed unfunded tax cuts in a somewhat frenzied attempt to stimulate economic growth, whilst the Bank of England sought to stabilise inflation through interest rate rises (which of course have the opposite effect on growth).
If we combine the aftermath of the mini-budget with continued high energy prices, rising mortgage costs and continued labour shortages, the IMF’s forecast comes as little surprise.
To look at the IMF’s World Economic Outlook for the UK in more detail, click here.
by Red Star Wealth
In yesterday’s Autumn statement, Hunt announced £30 billion worth of spending cuts and £24 billion worth of tax rises over the next 5 years. This increased taxation and cuts to government spending is aimed at rebuilding the economy after instability from the Covid pandemic, Truss and Kwarteng’s failure of a mini-budget, and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
“Stealth Taxes”
Income tax’s personal allowance, the main national insurance thresholds and inheritance tax thresholds have been frozen for a further two years.
Some members of the opposition have branded these as “stealth taxes”. This is because the freezes effectively means that people will have to pay more tax as wage increases (due to inflation) will push them into higher tax brackets.
This payment of higher taxes alongside continuing inflation will mean the cost of living crisis will be hitting us all even harder.
Higher Rate Tax Payers
Currently, those earning between £50,271 and £150,000 a year fall into the higher rate income tax band of 40%. Those earning above £150,000 a year then pay the additional rate of income tax of 45%.
As of April 2023, this threshold will reduce from £150,000 to £125,140, meaning higher earners will be paying more tax.
Protecting the Vulnerable
Hunt has announced additional cost-of-living payments for the most vulnerable:
£900 for those claiming benefits
£300 for pensioners
£150 for those on disability benefits
He has also introduced a cap on the increase in social rents, at a maximum of 7% in the 2023/2024 tax year.
The triple lock on pensions has been maintained, meaning state pensions will increase in line with inflation. Working age and disability benefits are also to increase in line with inflation.
The national living wage is to increase by 9.7%, rising to £10.42 in April 2023, which will benefit the lowest-paid employees in the UK.
Funding the NHS, Schools and Social Care
Hunt has announced an extra £2.3 billion per year to be invested in schools over the next two years.
He has also announced an increase in the NHS budget by an additional £3.3 billion in each of the next two years.
Additionally, Hunt has allocated adult social care additional grant funding of £1 billion next year and £1.7 billion the year after. As well as this, the implementation of the Dilnot reforms has been delayed by two years. These reforms would cap the amount any one person in England would have to pay towards social care to £86,000. Delaying this means we will have more funding for the social care sector.
Energy and Electricity
In May 2022, Rishi Sunak introduced a tax as chancellor called the Energy Profits Levy. This was a 25% surcharge applied to companies profiting from extracting UK oil and gas, and was to run as a temporary levy until the end of 2025. In yesterday’s Autumn statement, Hunt announced that this windfall tax will increase to 35% from January 2023 and will also stay in place for longer, until March 2028.
A temporary new electricity generator levy will also be introduced. This will impose a 45% windfall tax on profits of selling electricity above £75MWh.
From 2025, electric vehicles will no longer be exempt from Vehicle Excise Duty (often referred to as Road Tax), which will help further raise Government funds.
It was also confirmed that plans for £700 million of Government funding into the Sizewell C nuclear power plant in Suffolk are to go ahead. This new nuclear power plant is expected to create 10,000 jobs and generate enough power for 6 million homes. The aim is to get the UK on the road to energy independence, so that we are no longer so heavily affected by changes in global gas prices in the future. It also signals the first UK state backing for a nuclear project in over 30 years. However, over the plant’s expected 13-17 years of construction, the government has predicted it will add an average surcharge of around £1 a month to household bills. This means that, yet again, our finances are likely to be under even more strain.
by Red Star Wealth
With the Bank of England’s emergency bond buying support set to end today (Friday 14th October), we think it’s important to fill you in on what exactly has been going on.
The Mini Budget
Kwarteng’s mini-budget on 23rd September 2022 saw the Government announce enormous tax cuts with very little explanation as to how these would be funded. This has triggered strong waves of uncertainty which have in turn affected the UK’s financial situation.
It led to a steep drop in the value of the pound as well as rises in government borrowing costs.
Government Borrowing
One of the ways in which the Government generates enough money to fund its spending plans is by selling government bonds (also known as gilts) to investors. This acts as a form of debt which is paid back over time with the addition to interest.
They sell these bonds to investors such as large pension funds and big banks on international markets.
These investors have been demanding much higher interest rates to lend to the UK government because they have concerns over whether their tax cut plan will actually work.
What is the Link with Pension Funds?
Pension funds tend to invest in bonds as they are seen as a low-risk investment, giving a low but reliable return over a long period of time. They also buy a form of insurance to protect the value of these bonds.
As government borrowing costs increased, insurance providers began charging a higher rate of interest.
In order to afford these extra payments, many pension funds began selling their bonds, with further reduced their price and pushed up their interest.
This created a negative spiral, as the more bonds pension funds sold, the higher the cost of government borrowing became, meaning insurance payments rose, meaning even more bonds were sold, and so on, and so forth.
Bank of England Emergency Intervention
The Bank of England (BoE) decided to implement an emergency bond buying scheme as a temporary measure to stop the prices of government bonds falling any further and thus limit the need for pension funds to sell any more of them.
It did this by buying lots of government bonds. By buying these bonds, government borrowing costs should reduce, as it eliminates the need to pay those huge interest rates demanded by investors we mentioned earlier.
By buying these bonds, the BoE has helped stabilise their price, preventing further sales from pension schemes that could ultimately cause their collapse. They have essentially halted the market turmoil that was putting pressure on pension funds.
Despite announcing that they would buy up to £65bn bonds, with a daily purchase limit of £5bn a day, they have only bought around £5bn in total.
Only a Temporary Measure
The BoE’s intervention is a temporary measure aimed at maintaining financial stability. Their bond-buying scheme is due to end today, despite pension funds trying to get them to extend their intervention.
On Wednesday, when they announced that their emergency support would end on Friday as planned, the price of 20-year UK bonds hit new lows, with interest rates going up to levels not seen since 2002.
However, the idea behind the BoE stopping their intervention is that they expect demand to increase as pension funds rebalance their portfolios and stabilise. Think of the measure of them allowing pension funds some time to get back on their feet.
The BoE has not completely withdrawn support either. They have announced further measures to help pension fund sthat have been negatively affected by the recent market volatility. Under this measure, funds will be able to use a wider range of assets to access money to meet short-term financial needs. This should mean less pension funds having to turn to selling government bonds to raise cash, which is what was happening after Kwarteng’s mini-budget.
What a mess! If you’re still worried about what this means for you and your pension, reach out to a financial adviser for help.
by Red Star Wealth
Last Friday, on 22nd September 2022, Kwasi Kwarteng, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced in his mini-budget statement a set of economic policies which have been the subject of much discussion. Read on for an overview of some of the changes he’s made.
National Insurance and the Health and Social Care Levy
Since 6th April 2022, workers and employees have been paying an extra 1.25% National Insurance, taking the rate up to 13.25%. This increase was due to be replaced by the Health and Social Care Levy (a 1.25% levy on top of a 12% National Insurance rate).
Details of the Health and Social Care Levy were announced by Boris Johnson on 7th September 2021 and it was to be introduced by April 2023. The levy was for increased health care spending to deal with the backlog of patients awaiting treatment on the NHS.
Some of the levy was to be channelled into the social care system due to our ageing population, effects from the pandemic, staff shortages and lack of government spending.
The levy was to be calculated the same as National Insurance but would’ve also been paid by those at state pension age.
The levy was expected to raise around £13billion for health and social care. Despite cancelling the proposed levy, the Chancellor has claimed that funding for health and social care services will remain at the same level as if the levy was actually in place. I guess we will have to see…
The good news is that Kwarteng, along with cancelling the levy, is reversing the 1.25% rise in national insurance come 6th November 2022. The aim of this is to reduce workers’ and businesses’ tax burden and encourage growth to stimulate the economy.
Income Tax
As well as the decrease in income tax, Kwarteng announced some changes to income tax. The basic rate of income tax will decrease from 20% to 19% as of April 2023 (a year earlier than planned). Additionally, the additional rate of tax (set at 45% and applied to incomes above £150,000) is to be abolished.
In the short term, it seems as though most people will be paying less tax. However, former chancellor Rishi Sunak announced in 2021 that the personal allowance and higher rate threshold would be frozen from the 2022-23 tax year until the 2025-26 tax year.
This freeze will essentially offset the tax reduction announced by Kwarteng for most ordinary people.
It is the high earners who will fare the best. The rich, as always, seem to be getting richer. Abolishing the additional rate of income tax means that the highest earners, including millionaires, are in the same tax band as anyone earning over £50,271.
Corporation Tax
The Chancellor has cancelled the proposed rise in Corporation Tax. The tax was to increase to 25% starting April 2023 for firms which make over £250,000 profit. However, this will now be remaining at 19% for all firms, regardless of their profit.
Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT)
The 0% SDLT band has been doubled from £125,000 to £250,000. The idea is that cutting SDLT will promote residential property investment and spending on household goods.
The threshold before paying SDLT has also been increased for first-time buyers from £300,000 to £425,000, making it easier to get your foot on the housing ladder. The average house price for first-time buyers in the UK in 2021 was around £264,000, but if you’re spending more than this, the increased threshold is certainly handy.
Universal Credit
Households on universal credit may find it more difficult to claim. Those earning less than the equivalent of around 15 hours a week at National Living Wage will have to regularly meet with their work coach. If failing to do so, they risk a reduction in their benefits
There have certainly been mixed reactions to Kwarteng’s mini-budget, but how you feel about it is entirely up to you.
