Yesterday, on 19th June 2025, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain the base rate of interest at 4.25%.
The Bank of England’s Decision
Yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the base rate of interest at 4.25%. This was a split vote, with 6 members voting to leave rates unchanged and 3 members voting to cut the rate down to 4%.
The Bank of England cited “global uncertainty” as one of their reasons for keeping the base rate the same. They stated:
“Energy prices have risen owing to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The Committee will remain sensitive to heightened unpredictability in the economic and geopolitical environment, and will continue to update its assessment of risks to the economy.”
They mentioned the fact that inflation has dropped over the last two years, and that our underlying growth is weak, with the labour market also showing signs of weakening.
They also added:
“There remain two-sided risks to inflation. Given the outlook, and continued disinflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate. Monetary policy is not on a pre-set path. At this meeting, the Committee voted to maintain Bank Rate at 4.25%.”
The Decision Doesn’t Come as a Shock
This decision to keep the base rate unchanged does not come as unexpected due to a need to tread carefully to avoid a resurgence in inflation.
This is particularly true due given the rise in oil prices, triggered by the recent conflict between Israel and Iran (a major oil producer), creating inflationary pressure, an event which was cited as being a cause of uncertainty by Clare Lombardelli, deputy governor of the Bank of England.
Will We See a Change in August?
Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, stated:
“Interest rates remain on a gradual downward path, although we’ve left them on hold today.
“The world is highly unpredictable. In the UK we are seeing signs of softening in the labour market.
“We will be looking carefully at the extent to which those signs feed through to consumer price inflation.”
This mention of a “gradual downward path” hints at the possibility of a cut to the base rate on 7th August 2025, when it will next be reviewed. However, this rate adjustment will depend on inflation and other economic indicators.
Setting the base rate is a delicate balancing act which requires taking into consideration inflation, economic growth, and external global factors which could impact the UK economy.
Nicholas Mendes, a mortgage broker at John Charcol, has predicted that there will be a further one or two cuts to the base rate this year, possibly as soon as August. Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell seconded this, noting that the current market consensus was that there will likely be a rate cut in August or September and then another one by the end of the year. However, there is not a complete consensus on this, with Ben Thompson of Mortgage Advice Bureau predicting that the Bank of England will not be in a rush to cut rates further until tensions cool down in the Middle East. You can find out more about these predictions at MoneySavingExpert.com, who has reported on these.